Surpassing Quant Think Tank Center|NFL playoff picture: Cowboys sink as Dolphins, Lions clinch postseason berths

Every week for the duration of the 2023 NFL regular season,Surpassing Quant Think Tank Center USA TODAY Sports will provide real-time updates to the league's ever-evolving playoff picture − starting after Sunday afternoon's late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the schedule (through Thursday's game or Saturday's, if applicable).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference's seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on the evening of Jan. 7.

Here's where things stand at the moment:

NFL playoff picture during Week 16

AFC playoff picture

x – 1. Baltimore Ravens (11-3), AFC North leaders: They can't win the division this week due to Cleveland's win. But the Ravens can remain in the driver's seat for home-field advantage ... if they can beat the Niners on Christmas night. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Dolphins, vs. Steelers

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x – 2. Miami Dolphins (11-4), AFC East leaders: They secured a long-awaited victory against a team with a winning record (Dallas) – and locked into the playoff field – continuing to apply pressure to the front-running Ravens in the conference while not giving any more ground to the hard-charging Bills in the divisional race. Win out, and the Fins clinch home field and the bye. Remaining schedule: at Ravens, vs. Bills

3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5), AFC West leaders: A 7-2 record in AFC games and a win over Miami keeps K.C. viable to play a sixth consecutive AFC title game at Arrowhead Stadium. But the Chiefs probably need to run the table and get some help. At minimum, a win on Christmas against Las Vegas secures the division. Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders, vs. Bengals, at Chargers

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7), AFC South leaders: They've lost four in a row and five of seven ... and looked like a team that should have a top-five draft pick after getting embarrassed at Tampa on Sunday. Still, the Jags are hanging on to first place by retaining the tiebreaker (4-1 division record) to hold off the Texans and Colts – they swept Indy – who are also 8-7. Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers, at Titans

5. Cleveland Browns (10-5), wild card No. 1: They've now won three in a row, maintaining a slim cushion to separate them from the rest of the AFC wild-card fray. The Browns can secure a playoff berth by beating the NYJ at home Thursday night. Remaining schedule: vs. Jets, at Bengals

6. Buffalo Bills (9-6), wild card No. 2: Despite all the adversity, on and off the field, there's a strong heartbeat here – and this team persevered Saturday night to rejoin the playoff field. The division crown remains a possibility if the Bills can sweep their final two games and hope Miami also loses to Baltimore. Either way, win out, and Buffalo is in. Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, at Dolphins

7. Indianapolis Colts (8-7), wild card No. 3: Still highly viable postseason candidate ... despite getting smacked Sunday. Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders, vs. Texans

8. Houston Texans (8-7), out of playoff field: Still highly viable postseason candidate ... despite getting smacked Sunday. They can even scales with Indianapolis in Week 18. Remaining schedule: vs. Titans, at Colts

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7), out of playoff field: If nothing else, they took a big step toward salvaging Mike Tomlin's career-long streak of non-losing seasons as a head coach after completing a season sweep of Cincinnati. Still, head-to-head losses to Houston and Indianapolis are among Pittsburgh's problems. Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, at Ravens

10. Cincinnati Bengals (8-7), out of playoff field:And the crash back to earth. A winless mark (0-5) against the division and a 3-7 record in conference are shaping as season-killing detriments ... to say nothing of an upcoming trip to Arrowhead. Remaining schedule: at Chiefs, vs. Browns

11. Denver Broncos (7-8), out of playoff field: And Russ is pretty much cooked after that Christmas Eve debacle – though mathematically this team, now on a two-game skid, will remain alive a bit longer for the AFC West and a wild card. Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers, at Raiders

NFC playoff picture

y – 1. San Francisco 49ers (11-3), NFC West champions: They became the first team to clinch a berth in Week 14, and the first to wrap up a division in 2023 the following weekend. With wins in hand against the Eagles and Cowboys, the Niners continue to march toward home-field advantage ... but can't sew it up Monday due to the Lions' victory. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Commanders, vs. Rams

y – 2. Detroit Lions (11-4), NFC North champions: A Christmas Eve win secured the Lions' first-ever NFC North title and first division championship of any kind since 1993 (when Detroit was in the old NFC Central). Remaining schedule: at Cowboys, vs. Vikings

x – 3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4), NFC East leaders: They've guaranteed an opportunity to defend their conference crown but haven't looked up to the task as of late. But they got an early Christmas gift courtesy of Dallas' loss Sunday, one that moved Philly back atop the division ... and with a favorable finishing schedule. Remaining schedule: vs. Giants, vs. Cardinals, at Giants

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7), NFC South leaders: A fourth win in a row – plus New Orleans' defeat Thursday night – serves the surging Bucs well, and they could put a bow on the division next weekend. Remaining schedule: vs. Saints, at Panthers

x – 5. Dallas Cowboys (10-5), wild card No. 1: They've lost two in a row, both on the road, and that's exactly where they seem likely to find themselves once the postseason begins with the Eagles now decidedly in command in the race for the NFC East crown. Remaining schedule: vs. Lions, at Commanders

6. Los Angeles Rams (8-7), wild card No. 2: Thursday night's defeat of the Saints elevates LA to the sixth spot. Win out, and they'll snatch a wild card. Remaining schedule: at Giants, at 49ers

7. Seattle Seahawks (8-7), wild card No. 3: They've pulled wins out of the fire two weeks in a row, Sunday's victory in Nashville moving the Seahawks ahead of Minnesota. Next up, a de facto playoff game against Pittsburgh. Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Cardinals

8. Minnesota Vikings (7-8), out of playoff field: A slew of turnovers cost them dearly against Detroit, ejecting the Vikes from a wild-card spot. But wins over the Falcons, Saints and Packers help ... for now. Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, at Lions

9. Atlanta Falcons (7-8), out of playoff field: Big win Sunday over Indianapolis – and previous ones over New Orleans and Green Bay – allowed Atlanta to pick up some ground. Remaining schedule: at Bears, at Saints

10. Green Bay Packers (7-8), out of playoff field: Back on track (sort of) after taking care of the Panthers on Sunday, but they need some breaks. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, vs. Bears

11. New Orleans Saints (7-8), out of playoff field: They lost control of their postseason path with Thursday night's loss. Gotta have upcoming game at Tampa. Remaining schedule: at Buccaneers, vs. Falcons

x – clinched playoff berth

y – clinched division title

NFL playoff clinching scenarios for Week 16

Kansas City clinches playoff berth and AFC West division title with:

1. KC win OR tie

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